UPDATED: Farr's Law Applied to COVID-19 Data through August 16
Either Erwin Schrödinger or Arthur Schopenhauer said the following:
“The task is, not so much to see what no one has seen yet; but to think what nobody has thought yet, about that which everybody sees.”
In our most recent post, we said this:
In addition, we have expanded our analysis to apply Farr's Law to deaths, which are presented using a 7-day rolling average, as suggested by The COVID Tracking Project.
In March, in the “fog of war” against a novel virus that no one had seen, everyone was reminded that hospitals are the most essential institution in any community. What is now increasingly obvious is that COVID-19 has accelerated market forces – especially telemedicine – that will make hospital operations permanently more difficult.
Again, and for the avoidance of doubt, we do not and cannot know whether there will be a second wave of COVID-19, a true resurgence throughout the entire United States akin to the Spanish Flu. As William Farr said, “the death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference.” We can only hope that Farr’s Law is correct, and that the positive case rate and infection fatality rate will continue to decline.
However, one day, hospitals will be the only institution in the world whose "new normal" is the "old normal”, except that the “old normal” will be even more difficult. According to a principle that has stood the test of almost 200 years, that day could be as soon as October. Is your system prepared to return to normal?